Last Updated on May 3, 2020 1:19 pm by Steven

What do you do when expert advice from different sources is conflicting?

Let’s suppose that you need some advice on something that is going to impact your life.  You find two sources that many people consider experts.  During your research you find that the advise they give you is conflicting, what do you do?  Do you:

  • Follow the most conservative advice?
  • Follow the least conservative advice?
  • Follow the most restrictive advice?
  • Follow the least restrictive advice?

NOTE: Both of the sources receive the majority of their funding from the US Federal Government.

Our Dilemma Today!

This is a dilemma we that all face today during COVID-19!  Should I be forced to wear a mask in public?

World Health Organization

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that face masks only be worn by people who are caring people who have (or suspected of having) COVID-19.  They state:

“There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in the households or among contacts of a sick patient, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a preventive measure.  However; there is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19″  – WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf

Additionally, the WHO recommends that we stay 1 meter away from other people in community settings.  “Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and others. Why? When someone coughs, sneezes, or speaks they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person has the disease.”  Link

Center for Disease Control

The Center for Disease Control (CDD) takes a much more aggressive and draconian approach.  They recommend cloth face masks for everyone where social distancing is difficult to maintain.  They state:

“Everyone should wear a cloth face cover when they have to go out in public, for example to the grocery store or to pick up other necessities.” Link

The CDC recommends 6ft social distancing.  “Stay at least 6 feet (about 2 arms’ length) from other people” Link

Who is right, or are they all wrong?

Do I need a mask or not?  Do I need to stay one meter away from others or six feet?  If the experts can’t seem to agree, how should we know what we should do?  Do we need to continue to panic and just do things that are harmful or should we slow down and take a good look at what we are being told?

Here are some random thoughts I’ve had and the answers I’ve figured out:

  • Is there any political influence in any of the advice we are getting?
    • Both the WHO and CDC receive the majority of their funding from the US Government.
    • The CDC clearly states that its recommendations complement President Trump’s recommendations – which tells me that their recommendations have political influence.  Link
      • Result: Both have political influence because their funding comes from the government.
  • Which organization has the most experience?
    • My understanding is that the CDC has more lab experience with infectious diseases.
    • The WHO has more field experience with infectious diseases.
      • Result: The WHO wins this one because they have more field experience
  • Does the advise pass the “smell test”?
    •  COVID-19 size is estimated to be 0.12 microns link.  Two-layer Cotton masks filter just 7% of COVID-19 sized particles.
    • Cotton masks must be washed (in a washing machine in hot) – there are no recommendations on how often.
    • Everything that inhibits the intake of fresh air and the outtake of used air is bad for our overall health.
      •   Result: wearing a cotton mask (as recommended by the CDC) filters very few COVID-19 particles and inhibits fresh air coming into my lungs.  No mask wins this one.

Is there a placebo effect going on?

Just like Airport Security in the US, wearing a cotton mask in public does little to nothing to help.  It makes uninformed people feel better and it allows our government leaders the illusion of doing “something” to help the public.

If you are symptomatic, please stay home!  There are lots of organizations that will help you get supplies.

If you do not feel comfortable going in public without a mask, please wear one.  Please don’t get mad at me because we have come to different conclusions.

I believe that everyone has the right to decide what is best for them personally.  I believe that all businesses have the right to decide how they want to handle COVID-19.  I believe that I can choose to support or not support businesses that require a mask to enter.  NOTE: I will not be shopping at Costco until they drop the mask requirement.